COVID-19 is on track to be the third leading cause of death in 2022, for the third year in a row, and this year, about half of those deaths over the course of the year were among people who had at least their primary series.ĬDC and other researchers have shown that protection from COVID-19 vaccines can diminish, or wane, over time and booster doses are needed to maintain a robust immune response. That’s because vaccination rates have grown only slightly during that period, yet the share of people dying who were vaccinated has risen more steeply (as shown in the chart above). However, the rising share of the population that is vaccinated is only part of the story and does not seem to explain all of the rise in the share of deaths that are among vaccinated people over the last year. Older people are at greater risk for severe illness and death from COVID-19 than younger people, but vaccines and boosters still lower that risk substantially. That’s why, when CDC adjusts for some of these factors (age and population size), we still see that unvaccinated people are at much greater risk of death and other severe outcomes than people the same age who have stayed up-to-date on boosters. There are many more vaccinated people than there are unvaccinated people, and vaccinated and boosted people are, on average, older and more likely to have underlying health conditions that put them at risk for severe COVID-19 outcomes. Indeed, vaccinated people now make up the majority of the population – 79% of adults have completed at least the primary series – and the latest CDC data show that vaccinated people also now represent the majority of COVID-19 deaths. COVID-19 vaccines are very effective at preventing severe illness and death, but they are not perfect, so deaths among vaccinated people will still occur. Similarly, as the share of the population with a booster rose somewhat during 2022, the share of deaths among boosted people also rose. were vaccinated, vaccinated people would represent 100% of COVID-19 deaths. In other words, if 100% of people in the U.S. New variants combined with a reduction in masking and other non-pharmaceutical interventions may also lead to more transmission, which can in turn lead to more deaths.ĭuring the early rollout of vaccines, vaccinated people represented a small share of total deaths, but experts warned that the share would likely rise simply because vaccinated people were representing a growing share of the population. There are several factors at play here, including a rising share of the population that is vaccinated, waning immune protection and low uptake of boosters, and changes in immunity among the unvaccinated. What explains the rising share of COVID-19 deaths among vaccinated people? Fewer than 0.5% of COVID-19 deaths across all ages in 2022 have been among people under 25. From other data, we know there continue to be more overall deaths than there were before the pandemic ( excess deaths). Even with these reviews, it may sometimes be hard to determine the primary cause of death for someone with significant underlying health conditions, though these data are intended to be limited to cases where COVID-19 was a significant contributor to the death. In all jurisdictions, local health authorities review data to determine whether the death was associated with COVID-19 (through a review of vital records, cause of death, and/or other public health investigations or data sources), though methods vary by state or jurisdiction. People who were partially vaccinated are not included in this data. Similarly, to be counted as having a booster, a person must be at least two weeks out from their booster or additional dose before testing positive. In order to be counted as vaccinated, a person must be at least two weeks out from completing their primary series before testing positive (for example, at least 14 days after completing two doses of the mRNA vaccine). The data from this chart come from the CDC, which collects data on the number of deaths by vaccination status from 30 health departments (including states and cities) across the country.
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